821
ACUS11 KWNS 022048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022048
MTZ000-022245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 644...
VALID 022048Z - 022245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 644
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WINDS, WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MT. CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE
EXHIBITED RELATIVELY SHORT LIFESPANS THUS FAR, LIKELY INDICATING
THAT SIGNIFICANT COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION HAS YET TO OCCUR TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS, STRONG DYNAMICS (EVIDENCED BY 45-55
MPH GUSTS AWAY FROM DEEP CONVECTION) COUPLED WITH CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFTS ARE YIELDING SEVERE GUSTS BETWEEN 60-75 MPH.
THE STRONG NON-CONVECTIVE GUSTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AND EASTERN
ID ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL JET BEGINNING TO
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MT. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NORTH IT
WILL OVERSPREAD A WARMER AND MORE DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS IN PLACE AT
LOWER ELEVATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE TOP OF THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (AS
SUGGESTED BY MODIFYING THE 18Z TFX SOUNDING) COUPLED WITH CONVECTIVE
AUGMENTATION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OF 65-80 MPH - ESPECIALLY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MID 80S.
..MOORE.. 09/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TFX...
LAT...LON 48951050 48720993 48400972 47820988 47341014 46721073
46501123 46481177 46581207 47101240 48301290 48631287
48881262 48961194 48951050
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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