128
ACUS11 KWNS 022352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022351
NYZ000-PAZ000-030115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 645...
VALID 022351Z - 030115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 645 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AS STORM MODE HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME THIS
EVENING, THE DAMAGING WIND RISK MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS WESTERN NY. THE TORNADO RISK ALSO WILL CONTINUE, PARTICULARLY
WITH LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A MORE
LINEAR STORM STRUCTURE ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS EVENING. VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, AND THE KBUF VWP
INDICATES REAR-INFLOW AROUND 50-60 KT BETWEEN 1-2 KM AGL. THE
DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TOWARD THE FINGER
LAKES REGION BEFORE APPROACHING A SHARPER DECREASE IN INSTABILITY
FURTHER EAST. THIS THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND SWATHS. FURTHERMORE, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR STORM ROTATION AND EFFECTIVE STP IS AROUND 1 TO 2. AS SUCH, A
TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO CONTINUE, WITH LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
ALREADY NOTED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OR SO.
..LEITMAN.. 09/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 41957846 42067938 42167957 42377944 42567901 42817858
43167802 43497748 43527713 43477684 43017644 42317636
42097645 41987659 41987712 41957846
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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