617
ACUS11 KWNS 030049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030048
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-030215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN PA VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646...
VALID 030048Z - 030215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
DISCUSSION...THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA IN THE SHORT TERM. VWP DATA FROM KCCX INDICATES
SOMEWHAT SMALL BUT FAVORABLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM
SRH GREATER THAN 150 M2/S2. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE, A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, ESPECIALLY AS LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A LINE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PA OVER THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A GREATER RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS GIVEN THE
WELL-ORGANIZED LINE AND STORM MOTION AROUND 40 KT.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN PA, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY
BECOMES MORE HOSTILE FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE POTENTIAL. A SHARP
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND RAPIDLY INCREASING INHIBITION SHOULD LIMIT
THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN.. 09/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41817586 41627584 41237594 40907625 40667709 40857928
41368089 41548096 42108091 42328033 41977893 42027717
41957605 41817586
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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