914
ACUS11 KWNS 030238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030237
MIZ000-030400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030237Z - 030400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING NEAR
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MI. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITHIN MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.
BASED ON THE 00Z DTX SHOWING MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LARGE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS. STORM MODE MAY LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE HAIL RISK, AS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE LINEAR GIVEN SHEAR
ORIENTED ALONG THE INITIATING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS, BUT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR. OVERALL,
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 09/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43058489 42898316 42648248 42128250 41838310 41998395
42268486 42468503 42818507 43058489
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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