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ACUS11 KWNS 030545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030544
NDZ000-MTZ000-030745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MT INTO FAR WESTERN
ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030544Z - 030745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS
WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MT AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES,
VIGOROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MT. THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY
MOISTENING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BOTH
ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LAYER SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION, WITH A CONTINUED MIX OF
LINE SEGMENTS AND TRANSIENT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
RECENT GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW, AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE PRIMARY GUST FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE STRONGEST SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL.
THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS BEING CONFINED TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN SK, BUT SOME THREAT COULD REACH PARTS OF WESTERN
ND BEFORE THIS OCCURS.
..DEAN/HART.. 09/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46810636 47490552 48200569 48540595 48890600 49080594
49080475 49040409 48920380 48510371 47760355 47250369
47110407 46990441 46810636
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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