890
ACUS11 KWNS 030607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030607
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-030800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL PA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OH/WESTERN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030607Z - 030800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTION PERSISTS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTHEAST OH INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL PA. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS ONGOING NORTH OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL TEND TO
LIMIT SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL, THOUGH MUCAPE OF GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
A SMALL CLUSTER THAT MOVED OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND PRODUCED A 51 KT
GUST NEAR ASHTABULA, OH WILL MOVE THROUGH A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
UNLESS THIS CLUSTER BEGINS TO PROPAGATE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD, ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL TEND TO REMAIN ISOLATED. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT OR PROPAGATION INTO THE SOMEWHAT
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
PA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
..DEAN/HART.. 09/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 42267984 41357780 40957699 40637657 40247640 40067681
39927763 40347936 40868030 41148079 41398113 41538116
41688116 42267984
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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