789
ACUS11 KWNS 030734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030734
MNZ000-IAZ000-030930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030734Z - 030930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IA. THIS IS LIKELY
RELATED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM-ADVECTION REGIME,
WITH INCREASING 1-2 KM AGL FLOW NOTED IN UPSTREAM VWPS. ASCENT AND
MOISTENING ABOVE 850 MB BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
IT SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY DRY
AND WELL-MIXED LAYER BELOW THE MIDLEVEL MOISTENING (AS NOTED ON THE
UPSTREAM 00Z KOAX SOUNDING) MAY SUPPORT DOWNBURST POTENTIAL AND
MODEST COLD POOL GENERATION, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS. THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS MAY ALSO POSE A
LOCALIZED HAIL THREAT.
..DEAN/HART.. 09/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43289632 43719580 44239307 43969236 43899210 43239241
42979290 42719406 42609518 42589591 42889627 43289632
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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