357
ACUS03 KWNS 031918
SWODY3
SPC AC 031918
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND FAR
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND VICINITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
A PROMINENT, MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
TROUGHS ON EITHER SIDE, OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND IN THE NORTHEAST.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LARGELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER-SCALE PATTERN. ONE MORE NOTABLE PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDING BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.
..OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AT
12Z SATURDAY, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MENTIONED ABOVE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER ANY OF THE EARLY-DAY
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A HOT, MOIST, AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA INTO THE CAROLINAS.
ADDITIONAL, IN-SITU STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PRIMARY FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (UP TO 30-35 KT) IS EXPECTED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORM MODES, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDING FRONT. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF MODELS, BOTH
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC, INDICATE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 09/03/2026
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