455
ACUS11 KWNS 032219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032219
MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-040015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 032219Z - 040015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS REMAINS
VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE GREATER WASHINGTON D.C. AREA LATER THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, A
NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SOUTHEAST MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
(MCS) ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE LEADING MCS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE GREATER PITTSBURGH AREA, WITH THE TRAILING MCS ACROSS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE.
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE LINEAR MCSS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
30-40 KNOTS, WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ONGOING
ORGANIZATION AS THE CLUSTERS MOVE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS REMAINS VERY HOT AND HUMID, WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90FS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-TO-MID
70FS. THE RESULT IS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THESE STORMS, ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREATER
WASHINGTON D.C. AREA.
AS EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION
AND THE VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MCSS WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A NEW WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ONGOING WATCHES ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA, OHIO, AND WEST VIRGINIA.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 09/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 40907856 40647769 39867645 39817644 39007592 38017562
37607609 37527666 37797754 38477871 38967941 39727985
40487948 40907856
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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