787
ACUS11 KWNS 040044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040044
MNZ000-040215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040044Z - 040215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...TWO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER.
WHILE THE NORTHERN SUPERCELL HAS SINCE DISSIPATED, RECENT HRRR/RRFS
SOLUTIONS HAVE CAPTURED THIS ACTIVITY WELL AND SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
STABILIZATION. WHILE THE TEMPORAL ASPECT OF THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS EXISTS
IN THE SHORT-TERM. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR
OF 50-60 KTS OVERLAPPING AN MLCAPE BULLSEYE OF 3500 J/KG AS WELL AS
STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS 2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
BACKED SURFACE WINDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND MODESTLY ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A WEAK SURFACE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. THUS,
WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 09/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 46349604 46379579 46369507 46279467 46059441 45869440
45739464 45759515 45879571 46059608 46239616 46349604
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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