007
ACUS11 KWNS 040314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040313
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-040445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649...652...
VALID 040313Z - 040445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649, 652
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE AREAS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ONE SUCH CLUSTER IS THE REMNANTS OF A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT THAT
MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA AND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
BALTIMORE, MD. ANOTHER, LARGER CLUSTER, IS STRETCHED ALONG A LINE
FROM EASTER WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHERN VIRGINIA, AND PARTS OF MARYLAND
AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A THIRD AREA EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TOWARD SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY
AREA.
THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS,
WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, DESPITE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING
WEAKER THAN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, DCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
AT PRESENT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINEAR MCS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THIS REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
DEVELOPING WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS, IS LARGELY UNDISTURBED BY
PREVIOUS CONVECTION, AND LIES AHEAD OF A SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED MCS
THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. A SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #652 MAY BE NECESSARY.
..MARSH.. 09/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39038024 39357981 39477860 39537696 39547622 39437532
39207461 39027436 38607438 38177464 37887538 37837660
38267846 38828000 39038024
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page