877
ACUS11 KWNS 040427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040426
WIZ000-040600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040426Z - 040600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING ALONG AN MUCAPE GRADIENT. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM -- LIKELY THE SOURCE REGION -- SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70FS HAVE SUPPORTED
MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME,
EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR IS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. THE RESULT IS A
STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE
ONGOING SUPERCELL AS IT APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL --
PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 2" -- AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TO
THIS END, RECENT MRMS MESH IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL CORRIDOR OF 2-2.5"
HAIL WITH THIS SUPERCELL.
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS STORM AND IT'S PROXIMITY TO LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 09/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...
LAT...LON 43458955 44188936 44268851 43798729 43288701 43008719
42548776 43168910 43458955
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page