630
ACUS03 KWNS 040637
SWODY3
SPC AC 040636
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A MORE UNCERTAIN AND CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. SOME MODEST WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE MAY OCCUR AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CREST THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
MT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHILE DEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS ND INTO EASTERN SD AND THE MID-MO VALLEY
ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY. CAPPING WILL BE A MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME,
OR IF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES AND CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
INTO PARTS OF MT, BUT TIMING AND OVERLAP OF STRONGER SHEAR AND
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS CONDITIONAL ON SUNDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT, IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, SOME
RISK FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHEAST
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK, BUT HIGH PW VALUES COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC
WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING AND OUTFLOW CONSOLIDATION COULD OCCUR
SUCH THAT A FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER COULD SPREAD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
INCREASE.
..LEITMAN.. 09/04/2026
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