242
ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A MORE UNCERTAIN RISK FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..SOUTHEAST
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW TO MID
70S DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL FORCING AMID AN
UNCAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A
CLUSTER OF STORMS CAPABLE OF WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS. A SLIGHT RISK
HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE REGION WHERE THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH
A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, POTENTIALLY
WITH SOME STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO, ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA, AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WHERE SOME INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITHIN THIS BROADER AREA, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FEW PREFERRED ZONES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A SLIGHT RISK.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THESE PREFERRED ZONES
WILL BE. GREATER RESOLUTION OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD MAKE
THESE REGIONS MORE CLEAR IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..BENTLEY.. 09/04/2026
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