869
ACUS11 KWNS 050541
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050541
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-050715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 050541Z - 050715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE
AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS BEING
EVALUATED.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO
NORTHWEST OH HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR. AIDED BY MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR A DIFFUSE EFFECTIVE FRONT, THIS CONVECTION
HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL FORECAST BY SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR
MASS ACROSS LOWER MI AND IN/OH IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 3000-4000
J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE. WITH 25-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALSO IN
PLACE, STORM ORGANIZATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED WITH AN MCS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN
INITIAL RISK FOR SOME HAIL, ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TONIGHT.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE CLUSTER TO MATURE AND ORGANIZE AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND
NORTHWEST OH. FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OH LESS BUOYANCY IS
PRESENT BUT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
RISK (2000 J/KG MUCAPE FROM THE 00Z ILN SOUNDING) THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT, A WW
IS BEING CONSIDERED.
..LYONS/MOSIER.. 09/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
LAT...LON 42378623 41868367 41258266 40808218 39608232 39208302
39168352 39198398 39238432 39378461 39598481 40628547
41718633 42378623
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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