230
ACUS11 KWNS 051440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051440
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-051615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN KY/TN INTO FAR SOUTHERN
WV...SOUTHWEST VA...WESTERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051440Z - 051615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE DAMAGING-WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH TIME. EVENTUAL
WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...A REMNANT MCS AND ATTENDANT MCV ARE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN VA THIS MORNING, WHILE ANOTHER SMALL
CLUSTER HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER EASTERN KY. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY DOWNSTREAM, WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO NEAR/ABOVE 2000 J/KG DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. STORM INTENSIFICATION AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH
TIME THROUGH THE DAY, AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES (GENERALLY UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS) ARE
REACHED. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY LARGE PW
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. MODEST
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND MAINTENANCE OF ONE OR MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS, RESULTING
IN POTENTIAL FOR SWATHS OF SOMEWHAT GREATER WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
THE LONGEVITY OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER ACROSS EASTERN KY AS IT CROSSES
THE MOUNTAINS IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, EVENTUAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE IF THE ONGOING CLUSTER PERSISTS, OR VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM
STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 09/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 37428190 37498118 37478071 37038032 36568030 36068054
35858082 35898196 36118326 36528368 36738340 37428190
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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