000
ACUS03 KWNS 051945
SWODY3
SPC AC 051944
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SAT SEP 05 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
.. NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY,
IMPINGING ON THE CENTRAL US RIDGE. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL US. GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY, THE RESULTING VERTICALLY
VEERING PROFILES WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGING FROM 35
KNOTS TO MORE THAN 50 KNOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD ADVECT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY
RESULTING IN CAPPING ISSUES FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
AIRMASS, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE. THESE
STORMS SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND, IF THE STORMS CAN
TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER, STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING, AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, WITH PERHAPS ONE OR MORE MCSS EVOLVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..MARSH.. 09/05/2026
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