732
ACUS11 KWNS 052002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052001
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-052200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SAT SEP 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN
OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052001Z - 052200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION
HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING/WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS
GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS, THE HOT AND MOIST AIR MASS MAY
SUPPORT WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS AND A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION MAY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL, THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOCALIZED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..THORNTON/GLEASON.. 09/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 39688229 39828282 40148497 40368671 39798803 38978864
38218785 37448668 37058576 36748468 36598342 36988248
37628198 38078178 39038188 39298194 39688229
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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