120
ACUS11 KWNS 052140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052140
SCZ000-GAZ000-052315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 PM CDT SAT SEP 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO FAR EASTERN GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052140Z - 052315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SC COAST. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF THE ATLANTA METRO INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS OF 2140 UTC. OCCASIONALLY STRONGER
DOWNBURST SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE MARGINALLY MORE
WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS, AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF
DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED, INCLUDING A MEASURED 63
KT (72 MPH) WIND GUST AT KFAY AT 2048 UTC. THE ENVIRONMENT
DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL SC IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR
TO AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST, WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3000+ J/KG, MODESTLY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (PARTICULARLY INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE),
AND HIGH PW AROUND 2". COMBINED WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS, THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AND A SMALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 09/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34118163 34228075 34188006 34077972 33787931 33387907
32977917 32278015 32018048 31978094 32328132 32988181
33508209 34018205 34118163
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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