964
ACUS11 KWNS 060429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060428
NEZ000-COZ000-060630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT SAT SEP 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 060428Z - 060630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SMALL, BUT ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR, WHILE
APPROACHING THE NORTH PLATTE NE VICINITY THROUGH THE 1-3 AM CDT TIME
FRAME. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THIS WILL REQUIRE ANOTHER SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH, BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...AS THE INITIAL STRONGER STORM CLUSTER DISSIPATED TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE ALLIANCE NE VICINITY, VIGOROUS RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INITIATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST, ALONG A
STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE VICINITY. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
EITHER SIDE OF THE NORTHERN COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BORDER OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO, WHILE BECOMING A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A
DEVELOPING EMBEDDED LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND
AT LEAST A COMPACT AREA OF STRONGER 2-HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 MB ACROSS THE SIDNEY NE VICINITY.
AIDED BY A MODESTLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
(20-30+ KT AROUND 850 MB) ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, VERTICAL SHEAR AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW MAY CONTINUE TO OVERCOME
INCREASING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION (ASSOCIATED WITH FURTHER
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING) AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. BASED ON LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, EASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE UPDRAFT INFLOW BECOMES
POTENTIALLY MUCH MORE UNSTABLE EASTWARD ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
TOWARD THE NORTH PLATTE VICINITY, WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE
TO AROUND 70 F.
..KERR.. 09/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...
LAT...LON 40880240 41190229 41400110 41230039 40510091 40460172
40580260 40880240
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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