222
ACUS11 KWNS 061828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061828
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-062030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT SUN SEP 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS/AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061828Z - 062030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/AL, WITHIN A VERY WARM, MOIST, AND UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG IS ALREADY IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 100 F. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY LARGE PW WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ACROSS A BROAD
REGION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK (GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS), THOUGH
NORTHERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT ONE OR MORE
SOUTHWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS, IF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF STORMS AND
ATTENDANT OUTFLOW CAN BE REALIZED.
WITHIN THE BROADER AREA, 12Z HREF GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS GREATER
STORM COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS.
GREATER COVERAGE OF BUILDING CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN MS SUPPORTS
THIS SCENARIO, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RELATIVELY GREATER WIND-DAMAGE
THREAT IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SIMILARLY FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS ACROSS AL, EVEN IF STORM COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 09/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34649051 34668949 34698799 34448567 32228505 32588814
32748932 32949060 33089109 33509124 34649051
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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