466
ACUS03 KWNS 061927
SWODY3
SPC AC 061926
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT SUN SEP 06 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FROM NEBRASKA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST.
.. CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE STORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM-AIR ADVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THESE MORNING STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
HAIL AND WIND BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
VEERS AND WEAKENS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION, DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEBULOUS SO LOCAL-SCALE PROCESSES WILL
LIKELY GOVERN IF AND WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP. VERTICAL
SHEAR DECREASES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, BUT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY RACE EAST INTO THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE, THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE, PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND
AND HAIL OVERNIGHT.
..MARSH.. 09/06/2026
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