657
ACUS11 KWNS 062336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062336
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-070130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT SUN SEP 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING/SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062336Z - 070130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
7-9 PM MDT TIME FRAME, POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN INITIATING WITHIN
MODEST SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR/WEST OF THE EASTERN WYOMING STATE
BORDER VICINITY, TO THE SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. THIS IS OCCURRING
AS MOISTENING SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO NOTABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION BENEATH STEEP LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
DUE TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WIND FIELDS TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN
MID/UPPER-LEVELS, SHEAR APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG, BUT DEEP-LAYER
MEAN WIND FIELDS ARE ONLY SUPPORTING SLOW NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF ONGOING STORMS. STILL, INFLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE MIXED-LAYER AIR (IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG)
COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF
ONGOING STORMS, INCLUDING THE CELL NOW TO THE WEST OF SCOTTSBLUFF
NE, INTO THE 01-03Z. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 30 KT, THOUGH IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW LONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STORM
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING INHIBITION.
..KERR/SMITH.. 09/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 43010397 42930319 41600339 41510411 42450463 43010397
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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