992
ACUS11 KWNS 070012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070012
NDZ000-070215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT SUN SEP 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070012Z - 070215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE 7-9 PM MDT TIME FRAME, WITH SOME GROWTH INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OF
STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY POSE A CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL,
AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. DUE TO ITS
RELATIVELY ISOLATED NATURE, A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ONGOING THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO, WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIVE, SUSTAINED SUPERCELL NOW
ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, TO THE EAST OF SIDNEY MT. THIS
APPEARS FOCUSED BENEATH A BIT MORE STRONGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER
REGIME THAN AREAS NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES
TO MID/UPPER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES, SHEAR IS STRONG, BUT
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW APPEARS A RATHER MODEST 20 KT.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE REGIME, ASIDE FROM MODEST
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING, THE ONGOING STORM
MAY SHOW LITTLE NET MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE ALONG/ABOVE A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL,
THOUGH HOW LONG THIS IS MAINTAINED IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WITH DIURNAL COOLING REMAINS UNCLEAR.
..KERR/SMITH.. 09/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
LAT...LON 48280355 48320240 47860192 47510231 47390366 48280355
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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