637
ACUS01 KWNS 071613
SWODY1
SPC AC 071612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT MON SEP 07 2026
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
..ND
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WY/MT WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
HEATING/MIXING IN SOUTHWEST ND WILL LEAD TO A SHARPENING DRYLINE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 22Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THE WARM-SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM-MODES. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ND THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING.
..CO/KS/NE/SD
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PRESENT TODAY FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO
CENTRAL NE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL CO, WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL PROMOTE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS IN THE
STRONGEST CORES. BY EARLY EVENING, ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST SD WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE WILL POSE A
RISK OF A FEW MORE INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR EVEN A TORNADO.
RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS SD SCENARIO,
BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SLGT FOR NOW.
..LA/MS/AL
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TODAY, WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK, BUT HIGH CAPE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST A
RISK OF OCCASIONAL INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..HART/THORNTON.. 09/07/2026
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