651
ACUS03 KWNS 071849
SWODY3
SPC AC 071848
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
CORRECTED FOR MISSING HEADLINE
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S
AND LOW 100S AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OZARKS
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY, VERY WEAK SHEAR (LESS THAN 20 KNOTS) SHOULD LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AMID THE
STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, BUT A MORE FOCUSED OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW YORK
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD
THE GREAT LAKES. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS INSTABILITY FOCUSED
SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH ONLY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT. THEREFORE, THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT,
BUT SOME STRONGER INSTABILITY IN THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY
EXIST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.
..BENTLEY.. 09/07/2026
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