044
ACUS11 KWNS 071859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071858
NDZ000-MTZ000-072100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071858Z - 072100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCED GUSTS
UP TO 59 MPH. THIS CLUSTER IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ARE STEADILY MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA BUT FAIRLY POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S (LOW 80S NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER) WITH MLCAPE AROUND 250-500 J/KG. ADDITIONAL HEATING IS
LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA, WHERE THERE IS LIMITED
CLOUD COVER. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AND AS SUCH
A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE CONTINUES EASTWARD.
..THORNTON.. 09/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 46230818 46280501 46530442 46920410 47480398 48030419
48430457 48550537 48380688 47560904 47500908 46640897
46210862 46230818
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page