598
ACUS11 KWNS 072329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072329
SDZ000-NEZ000-080100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072329Z - 080100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR
THE SD/NE BORDER ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE ZONE IN
THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES. WHILE THE ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTERLY MOTION
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING STORMS CROSSING TO THE
COOL SIDE OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT, LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPE RANGES FROM 2000 TO AS HIGH
AS 4000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM, ESRH OF 200-400 M2/S2, AND ~40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR PRIMARILY
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A RISK FOR A TORNADO SHOULD A SUPERCELL BECOME ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER; ALTHOUGH, THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND MODEST STATIC STABILITY WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVELS (PARTICULARLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT). TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AND A TARGETED WW MAY BE NEEDED
SHOULD ONGOING ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO PERSIST/INTENSIFY.
..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 09/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...
LAT...LON 42729924 42899930 43329920 43989860 44189814 44269768
44149732 43899696 43549683 43109696 42799763 42729808
42619886 42729924
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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