685
ACUS11 KWNS 080034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080034
NDZ000-080230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663...
VALID 080034Z - 080230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL APPROACHING THE HARVEY ND VICINITY
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY POSE A CONTINUING RISK FOR A TORNADO. THIS
THREAT PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 9 PM CDT, WITH THE
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS OTHERWISE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS INTO LATE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...RECENT ISOLATED SUPERCELL INITIATION NEAR/EAST OF
GARRISON APPEARED FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING WEAK
SURFACE LOW, ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE INTERFACE OF A MORE
STRONG HEATED/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND A SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT ENVIRONMENT TO
ITS NORTH/EAST. LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY BE
MAINTAINED ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DEVILS
LAKE VICINITY THROUGH 02-03Z, BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS.
HOWEVER, FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION BASED AROUND THE 850 MB LAYER, BENEATH WEAK COOLING AND
EROSION OF INHIBITION IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER, MAY SUPPORT A
CONTINUING RISK FOR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS INTO LATE EVENING.
..KERR.. 09/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48480131 48779985 48519833 47699877 47410022 47830069
48480131
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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