619
ACUS03 KWNS 091932
SWODY3
SPC AC 091930
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED SEP 09 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY, AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN MN, EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN SD AND CENTRAL NE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH,
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM NE INTO SD, WITH A COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO CENTRAL MN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL WITH THE UPPER WAVE, RESULTING IN
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS OF 20-40
KT, COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES (INCLUDING 40 KT AT 850 MB
LATE IN THE DAY) WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE STORMS
BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
INITIAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY, THOUGH SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. AS SUCH, WILL NOT ADD ANY SIG
HATCHING FOR HAIL.
A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLS, PARTICULARLY FROM
EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN MN WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MN.
..JEWELL.. 09/09/2026
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