703
ACUS01 KWNS 092004
SWODY1
SPC AC 092002
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT WED SEP 09 2026
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN
NEW YORK...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
..20Z UPDATE
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT GUIDANCE. SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN
UNCHANGED, HOWEVER. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
..WENDT.. 09/09/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2026/
..OH/PA/NY
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WI/IL WILL TRACK EASTWARD
TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE INTO OH/IN AND WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF OH AND
WESTERN PA WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH SOME BOWING STRUCTURES EXPECTED, CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NY/NORTHWEST PA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.
..IN/IL/MO
THE STORMS THAT FORM OVER OH WILL ZIPPER SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO A POCKET OF AMPLE CAPE/MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
IN/IL INTO SOUTHERN MO. WINDS ALOFT IN THIS AREA WILL BE WEAKER,
WITH LESS OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. NEVERTHELESS, A FEW
STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..TX/OK/KS
WIDELY SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A
RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN A HOT/HUMID SURFACE AIR MASS.
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