802
ACUS11 KWNS 111937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111937
NCZ000-VAZ000-112200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111937Z - 112200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR
NORTHEASTERN NC INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. HERE, CONTINUED DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST AIR MASS (LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS) IS
YIELDING MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. DESPITE THE STRONGER
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND RELATED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BEING DISPLACED SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH, THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVE, AND
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
FAVORABLE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 09/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 37097985 37607966 37867930 37887887 37697838 37207744
36947673 36627642 36257656 35937706 35927751 36137858
36527941 36837974 37097985
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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