338
ACUS11 KWNS 120136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120136
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-120330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MINNESOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666...
VALID 120136Z - 120330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THIS LINE SEGMENT IS LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY, WHERE THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE. RAP FORECASTS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY MAX OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS WITH
SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. IN ADDITION, THE
RAP SUGGESTS 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 6.5 TO 7 C/KM RANGE.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK, WITH PERHAPS
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THESE THREATS WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT. AS THE LINE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, A SECOND LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS LOCATED
FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IN
THIS AREA, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE ABOUT 35
KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. FOR THIS REASON, THE
SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...LBF...
LAT...LON 46709476 46909448 46919409 46759385 46429387 45859422
45469453 44519495 43779538 42649651 42069723 41829763
41749810 41789829 41969836 42159836 42379817 42789779
43899634 44779589 45439604 46339515 46709476
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page