087
ACUS11 KWNS 121823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121822
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-122015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER OHIO VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121822Z - 122015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN FAR EASTERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING WITHIN A POCKET OF
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A RECENT
TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM PIT SHOWED WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS STORMS STEADILY
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY, WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. GIVEN THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL.
..WENDT/GUYER.. 09/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
LAT...LON 38498186 38438272 38638302 38918263 39658182 40538065
41357957 41397939 41487894 41257862 40787860 39857911
39367965 38768083 38498186
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