334
ACUS11 KWNS 130036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130036
KSZ000-OKZ000-130130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 130036Z - 130130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND TRAVERSE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN KS. A FEW SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL BE CONSIDERED IN THE SHORT TERM.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG A SURFACE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, WHERE AMPLE BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
PRESENT (I.E. 3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR,
RESPECTIVELY). SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORM
MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER, IF STORMS CAN MERGE, THEN A
COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS MAY MANIFEST. GIVEN 8+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT (PER THE 00Z DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING), SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY PRODUCE 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL, WITH 75+ MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL STRUCTURES OR ESPECIALLY AN MCS.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 09/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37859887 37849689 37649582 37309561 37029581 36849654
36809733 36869791 37059845 37859887
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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