164
ACUS11 KWNS 142009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142009
KSZ000-NEZ000-142245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142009Z - 142245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING WITHIN A
NE/SW-ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERN KS, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING CUMULUS EMBEDDED WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NE. IN SOUTHWESTERN KS, THE
MODIFIED 18Z DDC SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
30-40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL PROMOTE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS, WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS -- ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SMALL CLUSTERS THAT
EVOLVE. FARTHER NORTHEAST, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION
IS MORE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWERS.
NEVERTHELESS, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S
AMID 40-45 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL (PER UEX VWP DATA).
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MATURE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALSO POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE SEVERE RISK WILL WARRANT A
WATCH, THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 09/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38510178 39170114 39870023 40299944 40389891 40349851
40189812 39799788 39499806 37750121 37680174 37830198
38160198 38510178
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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