151
ACUS11 KWNS 142333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142332
IAZ000-150030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO NORTHERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142332Z - 150030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE,
SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE, WHERE MAXIMIZED 925 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND
850 HPA WAA ARE TAKING PLACE. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATOP A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE CONSTRAINED ABOVE 850
HPA. AS SUCH, THE ONGOING STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE, AND
ARE BENEFITING FROM THE STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND 50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER, SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, ANY SEVERE
THREAT THAT MATERIALIZES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED, SO A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 09/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42029543 41999586 42019594 42049603 42099609 42289591
42859504 43369406 43449336 43199293 42719313 42309404
42029543
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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