761
ACUS02 KWNS 161730
SWODY2
SPC AC 161729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
LOW-END PROBABILITIES OF WIND DAMAGE COULD BE INCLUDED IN LATER
OUTLOOK UPDATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS/OHIO VALLEY, BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE-STORM THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
OUTLOOK AREA.
..SYNOPSIS
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
AND IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON/QC, A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL FOCUS A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINOR ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW (20+ KT)
AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED/LOW-END THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OFFSET OF SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND THE LARGER BUOYANCY, THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES IN
THIS UPDATE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FARTHER WEST ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST/PLAINS, THOUGH MUCH OF THAT CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PROBABLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME BETWEEN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST CA, AS
WELL AS THE ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW.
VERY ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL
THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF AN OUTLOOK
AREA.
..THOMPSON.. 09/16/2026
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