302
ACUS11 KWNS 161946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161946
OHZ000-INZ000-162145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161946Z - 162145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OF 45-60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL
RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED, AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE IN/OH
STATE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
STALLED FRONT AND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR LOCATED NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. STRONGER HEATING ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL IN INTO CENTRAL OH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F AMID MID 70S F DEWPOINTS, RESULTING IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 20-30 KT MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIMIT LONGEVITY OF ANY STRONGER/BETTER ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. NEVERTHELESS, STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH PW
VALUES COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. OVERALL,
THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED, PRECLUDING WATCH ISSUANCE.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 40178559 40798440 40878292 40458191 40008182 39698200
39448292 39368434 39548533 39888566 40178559
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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