051
FNUS22 KWNS 161959
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
NORTHERN CA, OR, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINS
TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN CA. THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, WITH NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY D2/THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY
DRIVER OF LIMITED RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE FAST
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40 MPH, PARTICULARLY ON THE
NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER,
MARGINAL FUELS, SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON D3/FRIDAY AND
D4/SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD REDUCE
HOLDOVER IGNITION CONCERNS.
..GREAT BASIN
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AROUND 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE UNDER A EXPANDING 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET THURSDAY. A DRY AND
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT RH REDUCTIONS CLOSE TO 15%
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NV AND SOUTHERN ID. THE DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WHERE A
SLIGHT EXTENSION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WAS MADE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
NV AND FAR SOUTHWEST ID.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/16/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON DAY 2/THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON, MAINTAINING
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO DRYING FUELS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA, INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING WILL
PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH
VALUES OF LESS THAN 15%, SUPPORTING THE INTRODUCTION OF ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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