940
ACUS11 KWNS 181813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181813
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-182015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181813Z - 182015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN
TO INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW-90S F AMID
CONTINUED INSOLATION. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION; HOWEVER, MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES (AS SUPPORTED
BY A MODIFIED 12Z GSO OBSERVED SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS) ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS (WITH PEAK GUST MAGNITUDES LIKELY IN
THE 45-55 MPH RANGE). LOCALLY GREATER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND CAM GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTIVE OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED AND LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE TO WARRANT
WATCH ISSUANCE.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 09/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 34878398 36088112 36557996 36717935 36717887 36657860
36497839 36107816 35717814 35347826 34897868 34377963
33928105 33578270 33518354 33588423 33788465 33978476
34328463 34658430 34878398
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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