155
ACUS02 KWNS 191700
SWODY2
SPC AC 191658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE WIND AND HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY, WITH SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE OZARKS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODESTLY
ENHANCED MID/UPPER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE,
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL FOSTER 25-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST MLCAPE (500-1500 J/KG) AMID FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL FOSTER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOL, BUT STRONG
HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL, AND
ISOLATED GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY, SOMEWHAT BETTER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS OK, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY (1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE) WHERE STRONGER HEATING OCCURS.
EARLY DAY SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOCATION OF BETTER SEVERE RISK DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WILL POSE A RISK OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS ISOLATE HAIL ACROSS
PARTS OF OK INTO NORTH TX.
..OZARK TO OHIO VALLEY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL MO TO
CENTRAL OH BY MIDDAY. A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS AND STRONG HEATING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION OF STRONGER
STORM UPDRAFTS. NEVERTHELESS, MODERATE INSTABILITY (1500-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE) AND STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY ALSO
SUPPORT MARGINAL HAIL IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS WV/VA. VERTICAL SHEAR
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER, A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS,
PERHAPS RESULTING IN SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE.
..LEITMAN.. 09/19/2026
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