023
ACUS11 KWNS 210039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210039
OHZ000-210215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 210039Z - 210215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EVOLVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED IN SPACE AND TIME FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH, THE AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A WELL ESTABLISHED BOWING SEGMENT IS QUICKLY MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO. RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY FROM WILMINGTON, OH, (KILN) SHOWS INBOUND VELOCITIES AROUND
65 MPH AT 250M ABOVE RADAR LEVEL.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY, WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
(MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG), COINCIDING WITH A SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED AIRMASS (EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS) TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. GIVEN
THIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF GREENE, WARREN, CLINTON, AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.
WITH TIME, THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUCH THAT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS BECOME
INCREASINGLY SPORADIC. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUST OR TWO OR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN UNTIL SUCH TIME.
..MARSH/GUYER.. 09/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...
LAT...LON 39838425 39868388 39728329 39578302 39368298 39178313
39118345 39218401 39408435 39638442 39838425
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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