170
ACUS11 KWNS 212236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212236
TXZ000-220100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212236Z - 220100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE METROPLEX LATER
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED IN SOUTHERN OK
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER, WITH THE
STRONGER STORM MOVING THROUGH GAINESVILLE TX. OTHER CELLS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW, EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN WISE AND JACK
COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, AN OLDER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING NORTH AND EXTENDS
FROM DALLAS TO HOOD COUNTIES. THIS AREA HAS BECOME RELATIVELY HOT
TODAY, WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 F TEMPERATURES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A LOW BETWEEN THE STORMS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH.
GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THESE STORMS (WHICH
ARE SUBSTANTIAL IN HEIGHT), AND POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE/COLLIDING OUTFLOWS, IT SEEMS POSSIBLE AT LEAST STRONG
OUTFLOW WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX LATER THIS EVENING, WITH PERHAPS
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ASSUMING STORM CORES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
THEY APPROACH OUT OF THE NORTH.
..JEWELL/GUYER.. 09/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
LAT...LON 33209804 33389793 33409753 33579687 33679656 33519629
33129610 32919615 32749693 32559743 32359781 32499802
32719808 32919813 33129806 33209804
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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