813
ACUS03 KWNS 240714
SWODY3
SPC AC 240712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A 500 MB CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER OFF OF THE EAST COAST WHILE
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER
TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES GIVEN PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING TO THE WEST. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, SPURRED
BY LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 7 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP LOW 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHERMORE, APPRECIABLE
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD OVER 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VIA MODESTLY CURVED AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP, ACCOMPANIED BY AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL
THREAT.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/24/2026
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