152
ACUS11 KWNS 241836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241836
OKZ000-KSZ000-242100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241836Z - 242100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
4-6 PM CDT. THE ASSOCIATED RISK FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL APPEARS
MOSTLY MARGINAL IN NATURE AND IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
ARE PROGRESSING THROUGH MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FAIRLY PROMINENT
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED (IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER) ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD PERTURBATION, AND IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING
ONE, LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY NEAR THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER VICINITY THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS IS
OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND INSOLATION ALONG
THE WEAKER SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF EXPANSIVE COOL SURFACE RIDGING
(CENTERED OVER QUEBEC), AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 21-23Z. AS IT DOES, RAPID REFRESH
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT MIXED-LAYER CAPE MAY CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, AND THE ENVIRONMENT MAY GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODEST SHEAR.
BENEATH MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT, THIS COULD PERHAPS
INCLUDE EVOLVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN UPSCALE GROWING
CLUSTER. HOWEVER, RATHER MODEST LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
AND TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SEEM LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY
MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL.
..KERR/MOSIER.. 09/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 36179836 35669891 35319933 36039975 36529980 37410072
38530086 38860030 38829962 38279859 37119805 36179836
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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