225
ACUS02 KWNS 250547
SWODY2
SPC AC 250545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE WEST
AND EAST COASTS, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW (SATURDAY). A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE UPPER RIDGE AND EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES, ENCOURAGING
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET, ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE, WILL
FOSTER ENOUGH OVERLAPPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BUOYANCY TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY AFTERNOON, SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S F, AMID
60S F DEWPOINTS, BENEATH 7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS INTO
WESTERN TX. AS THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES AND LOW-LEVEL
WARM-AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AMID A
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT. GIVEN 25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
EXPECTED, MULTICELLS AND A COUPLE OF TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY STORM MODES, CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/25/2026
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