584
ACUS01 KWNS 251611
SWODY1
SPC AC 251609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN MCS IS DECAYING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
MORNING. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST, WHILE AREAS OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN OK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY
DAY CONVECTION, SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM INTO FAR SOUTHWEST TX WHERE STRONGER
HEATING IS OCCURRING AMID MORE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS. LIKEWISE,
ACROSS WESTERN OK AHEAD OF THE TX PANHANDLE CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW,
MORE ISOLATED CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING FOR STRONGER HEATING OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
..SOUTHEAST NM/SOUTHWEST TX
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST AND MLCAPE WILL
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM/SOUTHWEST TX. A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL, BUT THE SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPERED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY DAY MCS.
..WESTERN OK
WHILE CURRENTLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN OK, AFTERNOON HEATING
COULD BECOME MUTED BY CLOUD COVER AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ONGOING TX PANHANDLE ACTIVITY SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS COULD LIMIT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A
STRONG GUST OR TWO COULD OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT HEATING/STEEPENING OF
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNFOLDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR,
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY, THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIMITED.
..LEITMAN/CHALMERS.. 09/25/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page