224
ACUS02 KWNS 251728
SWODY2
SPC AC 251726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT MOISTURE PLUME AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SHUNTED EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPSTREAM
HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, EAST OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A DEEP OCCLUDING CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IN A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST, MIDLEVEL
BUOYANCY/DEPTH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FL STRAITS. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST, WHERE A CONFLUENCE ZONE COULD SUPPORT
LOW-TOPPED, WARM PROCESS CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTION FOR
CHARGE SEPARATION.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITHIN THE LINGERING
MOISTURE PLUME AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO
CENTRAL KS. A DEEP, SURFACE MIXED LAYER IN AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD
DEBRIS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THE LARGER-SCALE
MASS RESPONSE WILL REMAIN WEAK, THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..THOMPSON.. 09/25/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page