123
ACUS03 KWNS 251927
SWODY3
SPC AC 251926
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
CHANGES TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE SLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INLAND TO CA/NV, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM MO INTO OK, AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES STILL MAY OCCUR WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM
ADVECTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY FROM MO INTO OK AND NORTH TX ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
DAKOTAS WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OCCURS WITH STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST AZ INTO NM AND FAR WEST TX WITHIN THE LINGERING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY INTO MORE OF THE ROCKIES AS
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INCREASE GRADUALLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CA/NV
MIDLEVEL TROUGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS A RESULT
OF CONSISTENTLY WEAK BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN ALL OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
..THOMPSON.. 09/25/2026
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